Experiments on predicting sea ice variations off the coast of Hokkaido in the southern Sea of Okhotsk

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  • 知床をはじめとする北海道オホーツク海沿岸海域における海氷変動予測実験
  • シレトコ オ ハジメ ト スル ホッカイドウ オホーツクカイ エンガン カイイキ ニ オケル カイヒョウ ヘンドウ ヨソク ジッケン

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Abstract

The southern Sea of Okhotsk off Hokkaido is the most southern region where sea ice can reach in the northern hemisphere. Therefore, it is considered that the sea ice in this region is sensitive to the global warming. In this article, we describe preliminary results of the numerical experiments evaluating the variations of the sea ice in 2050 off Hokkaido. A sea-ice and ocean coupled model, covering the sea surrounding the Hokkaido (with a grid of 1/50°), is nested to a parent model that covers the entire Sea of Okhotsk (with a grid of 1/10°), and is forced by an atmospheric data which is produced by utilizing the difference between the 2050 climate and the 2000 climate presented by the CMIP6 models, in order to project the sea ice variations of 2050. The sea-ice and ocean coupled model predicted that the sea ice area, would be reduced to 1/3 in 2050 compared to the present sea ice area even in a low greenhouse gas emission scenario.

Journal

  • 低温科学

    低温科学 82 143-152, 2024-03-29

    低温科学第82巻編集委員会

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