AN ERROR ANALYSIS ON STORM SURGE FORECAST AT THE PORT OF NAGOYA, JAPAN, INDUCED BY TYPHOON TRAMI (2016)

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  • 2018年台風24号の名古屋港における高潮予報誤差の要因分析
  • 2018ネン タイフウ 24ゴウ ノ ナゴヤコウ ニ オケル タカシオ ヨホウ ゴサ ノ ヨウイン ブンセキ

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Abstract

<p> Typhoon Trami (2018) maintaining its strong intensity approached at Port of Nagoya at the same time when the high astronomical tide just occurred. Thus the storm surge alert in Ise Bay was issued by Japan Meteorological Agency. However, since the typhoon track forecasts that were boundary conditions for storm surge forecasts led to significant errors, the observed sea-level anomaly decreased from the earlier forecasts and did not cause a remarkable storm surge disaster at Port of Nagoya. In order to improve early warning system for storm surge disaster, the physical reasons for the forecast errors in this event should be clarified. In this study, we analyzed the forecast errors and worst storm surge based on the track ensemble experiments simulated by a coupled typhoon-storm surge model. The storm surge elevation at Port of Nagoya was unexpectedly suppressed because Trami had a large radius of maximum wind speed of about 120 km, actually passed over a more southern track than they had predicted, and eventually caused a weaker wind speed at Port of Nagoya than they had expected. The worst storm surge, in this case, had a maximum sea level anomaly of 2.24 m, which was induced by a case in the ensemble members that traveled about 1.3 degrees north of the actual typhoon track.</p>

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