Factors influencing hostage takers' decisions to surrender: Effects of surrounding factors on hostage takers' decision-making processes

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  • Yokota K.
    科学警察研究所法科学第一部心理第二研究室
  • Watanabe S.
    科学警察研究所防犯少年部
  • Watanabe K.
    科学警察研究所防犯少年部環境研究室

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  • 人質立てこもり事件の結末に影響する要因―状況要因が犯人の意思決定に与える影響について―
  • ヒトジチ タテコモリ ジケン ノ ケツマツ ニ エイキョウ スル ヨウイン ジョウキョウ ヨウイン ガ ハンニン ノ イシ ケッテイ ニ アタエル エイキョウ ニ ツイテ

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Abstract

<p>Eighty seven hostage barricade incidents that occurred in Japan from the period of 1970 to 2000 were examined to analyse factors influencing hostage takers' decisions to surrender. Though previous studies on hostage takings focused on criminals' psychological and/or psychiatrical characteristics, the current analyses revealed that surrounding factors at the time of hostage takings effected hostage takers' decision making. The x2 test and the logistic regression analysis showed that injuries/death of hostages' negatively influenced hostage takers' surrender, while the 'conversation between hostages and hostage takers', 'hostage takers' demands of media reports', and 'barricading within buildings' led to their surrender. Based on these findings, psychological processes of hostage takers' decision making were discussed, together with those of police officers.</p>

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