Selection of Tsunami Observation Points Suitable for Database-Driven Prediction
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- Taniguchi Junichi
- Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokushima University
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- Tagawa Kyohei
- Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokushima University
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- Yoshikawa Masashi
- Graduate School of Frontier Science, Tokyo University
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- Igarashi Yasuhiko
- Japan Science and Technology Agency
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- Ohsumi Tsuneo
- National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
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- Fujiwara Hiroyuki
- National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
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- Hori Takane
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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- Okada Masato
- The University of Tokyo
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- Baba Toshitaka
- Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokushima University
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説明
<p>During the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, real-time estimate of the earthquake’s magnitude was quite low, and consequently, the first report about the tsunami also understated its severity. To solve this issue, some proposed a massive overhaul of Japan’s offshore tsunami observation networks and methods to predict tsunamis in real time. In this study, we built a database containing 3,967 scenarios of tsunamis caused by earthquakes with hypocenters along the Nankai Trough, and tested a tsunami prediction method that uses this database along with offshore tsunami observation networks. Thus, we found that an uneven distribution of observation points had a negative effect on predictive accuracy. We then used simulated annealing to select the observation points to be used at each observation site and found that the predictive accuracy improved while using a few selected observation points compared to using every point.</p>
収録刊行物
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- Journal of Disaster Research
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Journal of Disaster Research 13 (2), 245-253, 2018-03-20
富士技術出版株式会社