An Empirical Analysis on Individual Investors' Inflation Perceptions and Expectations Using Structural Equation Modeling:

DOI Web Site Web Site 2 References Open Access
  • Suehiro Toru
    Graduate School of Economics, Hosei University Fixed Income Research Deparrtment, Mizuho Securities, Co., Ltd.
  • Takeda Koichi
    Faculty of Economics, Hosei University
  • Kozu Takashi
    Ricoh Institute of Sustainability and Business The Research Institute for SocionetworkStrategies
  • Takemura Toshihiko
    Faculty of Economics, Saga University

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 構造方程式モデリングを用いた個人投資家のインフレ認識とインフレ予想の分析
  • 構造方程式モデリングを用いた個人投資家のインフレ認識とインフレ予想の分析 : インフレ予想の異質性バイアス
  • コウゾウ ホウテイシキ モデリング オ モチイタ コジン トウシカ ノ インフレ ニンシキ ト インフレ ヨソウ ノ ブンセキ : インフレ ヨソウ ノ イシツセイ バイアス
  • ――インフレ予想の異質性バイアス――
  • Heterogeneity Biases in Inflation Expectations

Search this article

Abstract

<p>In this paper, we analyze the current inflation perceptions, the formation mechanism of the 5-year inflation expectations, and their heterogeneity by gender and age with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based on “Survey on consciousness of individual investors” conducted in February 2016. We find that 1) if the current anxiety, which is a latent variable related to anxiety about the current Japanese economy and the state of household, is higher, the current inflation perceptions become higher; 2) the current inflation perceptions also affect the 5- year inflation expectations; and 3) “future anxiety” doesn't directly affect inflation expectations. 4) If the “future anxiety” become stronger, the inflation expectations are boosted through “current anxiety” and inflation perceptions. 5) Young people and elderly people have higher inflation perceptions. This U-shaped tendency could be explained by their strong “current anxiety.” 6) Inflation expectations tend to be higher in the 50s and 60s regardless of their strong future and current anxiety. 7) Male's inflation perceptions tend to be low, but another analysis shows that there is no gender difference in inflation expectations. </p>

Journal

References(2)*help

See more

Related Projects

See more

Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

Report a problem

Back to top