inflow prediction of a dam through lag correlation analysis

DOI

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • ラグ相関解析を用いたダム流入量予測

Abstract

<p>In the Chao Phraya River in Thailand, the fluctuation range of the river flow is large and operation of the dam is very difficult. A system that accurately predicts the amount of dam inflow is important . An accurate prediction makes the risk of flood and drought less. In this study, we estimate the inflow of Bhumibol Dam. In previous researches, we used lag correlation analysis based on a series of global monthly precipitation data with a resolution of 1 degree, and constructed a model to explain past inflow changes. Then, we predict the inflow, using the model, In the lag correlation analysis of this study, when the time-series data includes the amount of precipitation that caused a flood in Thailand in 2011. it was found that the predicted value after 2012 tends to be upside . It is considered that this is because the number of samples of time series data is small and the stability of the model against outliers is low.</p>

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Details 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390565134803131520
  • NII Article ID
    130007759990
  • DOI
    10.11520/jshwr.32.0_182
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
    • CiNii Articles
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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