STUDY ON STATISTICAL PREDICTION METHOD OF STORM SURGES IN THE SETO INLAND SEA EMPLOYING STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL

DOI Web Site Web Site 2 References

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 確率台風モデルを援用した瀬戸内海における高潮の統計的予測手法に関する研究
  • カクリツ タイフウ モデル オ エンヨウ シタ セトナイカイ ニ オケル タカシオ ノ トウケイテキ ヨソク シュホウ ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

Search this article

Abstract

<p> Although the frequency of tropical cyclones shows a declining trend around the world, the intensity will increase, and the occurrence possibilities of higher waves and severer storm surges are also increasing. In a changing global environment, a stage which stochastically assume by scientific basis has come, rather than repeating unexpected damage caused by countermeasure with assumemation based on the maximum record. On projecting the climate change of occurrence probability of storm surges, while little researches on statistical prediction method of storm surges has been done. This study analyzes storm surges employing stochastic typhoon model and nonlinear shallow water model SuWAT, and proposes an empirical equation to predict storm surge statistically in the Seto Inland Sea. Also, this study assesses the climate change of storm surge using mega ensanble climate change database d4PDF. As a result, estimated return period of storm surge in Osaka bay by this study becomes shorter than the previous research, which indicates a more risk possibility. Also, this study projects storm surge in the future climate will increase and the risk will be higher than present climate as similar to the previous researches.</p>

Journal

References(2)*help

See more

Related Projects

See more

Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

Report a problem

Back to top