DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL WAVE ESTIMATION MODEL FOR TOYAMA BAY USING ENSEMBLE LEARNING NEURAL NETWORK

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  • アンサンブル学習ニューラルネットワークを用いた富山湾沿岸波浪推算モデルの開発
  • アンサンブル ガクシュウ ニューラルネットワーク オ モチイタ トヤマワン エンガン ハロウ スイサン モデル ノ カイハツ

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Abstract

<p> The risk of Yorimawari-wave disasters will increase due to the strengthening of extreme events caused by climate change. Statistical evaluation of low-frequency high waves is important and requires long-term wave data. However, it is difficult to reproduce high waves on the coast of Toyama Bay by the numerical wave model. The authors have developed the neural network (NN) model to estimate wave height at the NOWPHAS observation point of Toyama Bay, but there was a problem in its applicability related to the characteristics of low pressure. In this research, we construct a versatile NN model by incorporating multi-time learning of teacher data and stacking ensemble learning. Then, new NN model estimates the wave height and period for the period without observation data and the statistical evaluation of the low-frequency waves are performed. As a result, a general-purpose and highly accurate NN was constructed, and the statistical evaluation of low-frequency waves at NOWPHAS Toyama point revealed that the observation period was insufficient.</p>

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