Characterized Fault Models for the Reproduction of the Tsunami Traces by the Great Earthquakes along the Nankai Trough

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Other Title
  • 南海トラフの巨大地震による津波痕跡を再現する特性化波源断層モデル
  • —Towards Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment—
  • -確率論的津波ハザード評価に向けて-

Abstract

<p>Five great interplate earthquakes such as the 1946 Showa-Nankai earthquake, the 1944 Showa-Tonankai earthquake, the 1854 Ansei-Nankai earthquake, the 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquake and the 1707 Hoei earthquake have occurred along the Nankai trough over the past 300 years. In this study, we try to reproduce the tsunami trace heights of the five great earthquakes using characterized fault models based on the tsunami recipe (HERP, 2017)8). Tsunami simulation has been carried out for the characterized fault models whose slip heterogeneities were expressed by two different slip areas, and the calculated maximum tsunami heights (T.P.) and the tsunami trace heights were compared along the coastline. The geometric average K, geometric standard deviation κ (Aida, 1978)24) and the residual sum of squares between the calculated maximum tsunami heights and the tsunami trace heights were used to evaluate the reproducibility of the models. We have obtained characterized fault models to reasonably explain the tsunami trace heights of the five great earthquakes, which indicate the effectiveness of the tsunami recipe (HERP, 2017)8)and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on characterized fault models.</p>

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