INFLUENCE OF RECENT TYPHOON CHARACTERISTICS ON TYPHOON STATISTICS USING A STOCHASTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL
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- NAKAJO Sota
- 大阪市立大学 大学院工学研究科
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- MORI Nobuhito
- 京都大学 防災研究所
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 近年に発生した熱帯低気圧特性が台風統計量に及ぼす影響についての確率台風モデルを用いた検討
- キンネン ニ ハッセイ シタ ネッタイ テイキアツ トクセイ ガ タイフウ トウケイリョウ ニ オヨボス エイキョウ ニ ツイテ ノ カクリツ タイフウ モデル オ モチイタ ケントウ
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Abstract
<p> The recent increase in the number of extreme typhoons motivates us to consider the necessity of reviewing typhoon statistics as a design requirement for future disaster management. In this study, a stochastic typhoon model is used to investigate the effect of the addition of typhoon data from 2009 to 2020 on typhoon statistics. With the addition of recent data, the frequency of typhoons tends to decrease in general. Although the change in the central pressure is small, the average value tends to decrease in western Japan and to increase in eastern Japan. On the other hand, the frequency of extreme typhoons tends to increase at many locations. The speed of typhoon propagation tends to decrease slightly in the Pacific Ocean, while it tends to increase in the western part of the Sea of Japan. Although the changes are not large enough to have a significant impact on the evaluation of extreme values using stochastic tropical cyclone model, results are consistent with the known effects of global warming, such as an increase in extreme typhoon events due to global warming.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering) 77 (2), I_781-I_786, 2021
Japan Society of Civil Engineers