WATER LEVEL PREDICTION USING FLOOD FLOW PROPAGATION AND MODIFIED DISCHARGE OF THE TANK MODEL BY HYDRAULIC DATA ASSIMILATED TO OBSERVED WATER SURFACE PROFILES

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  • 観測水面形の同化解析データを利用した洪水流伝播とタンクモデルの流出量修正に基づく水面形予測

Abstract

<p> A flood forecasting method that can analyze the longitudinal water surface profiles time series of ongoing floods with high accuracy is required to ensure the timely evacuation of residents. In this paper, the water level prediction method using flood flow propagation and water level prediction method with modified runoff of tank model is examined based on the hydraulic quantities obtained from the assimilation analysis.</p><p> As a result, the water level propagation time of the flood in September 2013 is clarified, and the predicted water level approximately agrees with the observed water level up to 3 to 5 hours ahead. The analysis method based on the assimilation flow rate can predict the water level by flood flow analysis using the flow rate with the modified state quantity of the tank model. This predicted water level approximately agrees with the observed water level over a long lead time. Therefore, it is shown that this prediction method is highly applicable to disaster prevention information.</p>

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