An Analysis of the Industrial Specialization of 7 Prefectures in Japan before and after the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis using the Esteban-Marquillas Shift-Share Methodology.

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Other Title
  • シフト・シェア分析によるリーマン・ショック前後の産業特化 : 製造業トップ7都府県を対象として
  • シフト ・ シェア ブンセキ ニ ヨル リーマン ・ ショック ゼンゴ ノ サンギョウ トッカ : セイゾウギョウ トップ 7 トフケン オ タイショウ ト シテ

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The value-added data from the various editions of the Reports of Prefectural Accounts of the top seven manufacturing prefectures (Tokyo, Saitama, Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Aichi, Osaka and Hyogo) are employed to compute the effects of the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis. The 'specialization index' and the components from the 'shift-share analysis' are computed by means of the Esteban-Marquillas (1972) methodology for the 2001-2006 and the 2010-2015 periods. The resulting specialization indices showed, that although there are stable prefectural industrial structures, this stability may not reflect the underlying changes in the factors of growth detected by the shift-share components. Rather, the shift-share results showed that the compositions of the factors prior to the mortgage crisis may be more similar and compact than those after the montage crisis. This implies that the factors causing the changes in value added varied across the industries and across the seven prefectures after the 2008 Mortgage Crisis. In addition, examining the direction of the regional specialization, each prefecture exhibits an increase in sectoral growth in the industries which have some competitive advantages.

Journal

  • 地域経済研究

    地域経済研究 30 47-60, 2019-03

    広島大学大学院社会科学研究科附属地域経済システム研究センター

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