A Study on the Methodology to Estimate Marginal System LCOE of Power Sources Under High Penetration of Variable Renewable Energies

DOI
  • Matsuo Yuji
    立命館アジア太平洋大学 アジア太平洋学部 一般財団法人 日本エネルギー経済研究所
  • Isonaga Akira
    株式会社J-POWERビジネスサービス
  • Azuma Hitoshi
    株式会社J-POWERビジネスサービス
  • Fukutome Suguru
    株式会社J-POWERビジネスサービス
  • Iwafune Yumiko
    東京大学生産技術研究所 エネルギーシステムインテグレーション社会連携研究部門
  • Ogimoto Kazuhiko
    東京大学生産技術研究所 エネルギーシステムインテグレーション社会連携研究部門

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 変動性再生可能エネルギー大量導入時の限界システムLCOEの評価方法に関する検討

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the marginal costs of power sources referred to as marginal system LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity), that was defined in prior works, using mathematical models. We then applied the method to Japan’s power system in 2030 to estimate the relative competitiveness of power generating technologies under high penetration of variable renewable energies (VRE). In a power generation mix consistent with the Strategic Energy Plan of the government,　that was published in 2015, the marginal system LCOE of solar PV, onshore wind, nuclear, coal, and gas power generation change to 19.2 JPY/kWh, 22.3 JPY/kWh, 13.2 JPY/kWh, 13.8 JPY/kWh, and 10.3 JPY/kWh, respectively, from the LCOE of 14.9 JPY/kWh, 19.1 JPY/kWh, 10.3 JPY/kWh, 12.9 JPY/kWh, and 13.4 JPY/kWh, respectively. In a system with a higher share of VRE, the marginal system LCOE of VRE and nuclear power rise further. The analysis implies that marginal system LCOE of VRE may rise because of the inflexibility and the electricity losses caused by energy storage and transmission, highlighting the need to investigate the effects of flexibility options to reduce the marginal system LCOE of VRE.

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Details 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390574181047836032
  • DOI
    10.24778/jjser.43.4_129
  • ISSN
    24330531
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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