A Quantitative Analysis of Japan's Optimal Power Generation Mix towards 2050 - Considering Macroeconomic Effects of Nuclear Power Generation and Hydrogen Price -

DOI
  • Okabayashi Hideaki
    一般財団法人日本エネルギー経済研究所
  • Ota Keisuke
    一般財団法人日本エネルギー経済研究所
  • Matsuo Yuji
    立命館アジア太平洋大学 アジア太平洋学部 一般財団法人日本エネルギー経済研究所

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 2050年に向けた最適電源構成の検討 －原子力と水素価格のマクロ経済影響を加味した定量分析－

Abstract

In this study, assuming the power supply portfolio in Japan in 2050, we conducted a model analysis to achieve carbon neutrality while supplying the required amount of power. The energy model developed in this paper is an integrated model which combines an optimal power generation mix model and an econometric model. The results show considerable discrepancies between the “optimal” power generation mix in terms of total power system cost and that in terms of GDP. For example, in cases with possible new construction of nuclear power plants, the total system cost increases by JPY 1.6 trillion from a case with the hydrogen price at JPY 20/Nm3 to a case with the price at JPY 40/Nm3, while GDP decreases by JPY 0.9 trillion. This implies that low prices of imported fuels may result in the loss of national welfare, if they lead directly to increased imports of power generation fuels and declines in energy self-sufficiency.

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Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390574876232637184
  • DOI
    10.24778/jjser.43.5_197
  • ISSN
    24330531
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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