Development of a model to predict the probability of discontinuing fitness club membership among new members

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  • Nemoto Yuta
    Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Tokyo Medical University Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology
  • Kikuga Nobumasa
    Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Tokyo Medical University Profit Japan Corporation
  • Sawada Susumu
    Faculty of Sport Sciences, Waseda University
  • Matsushita Munehiro
    School of Physical Education, Tokai University
  • Gando Yuko
    Faculty of Sport Science, Surugadai University
  • Watanabe Natsumi
    Tokyo YMCA College of Physical and Early Childhood Care Education
  • Hashimoto Yuko
    Center for Institutional Research, Educational Development, and Learning Support, Ochanomizu University
  • Nakata Yoshio
    Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba
  • Fukushima Noritoshi
    Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Tokyo Medical University
  • Inoue Shigeru
    Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Tokyo Medical University

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Other Title
  • フィットネスクラブの新規会員における早期退会リスクを推定するモデルの開発
  • フィットネスクラブ ノ シンキ カイイン ニ オケル ソウキ タイカイ リスク オ スイテイ スル モデル ノ カイハツ

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Abstract

<p>Approximately 40%–65% of new fitness club (FC) members cancel their membership within 6 months. To prevent such cancellations, it is essential to identify members at high risk of doing so. This study developed a model to predict the probability of discontinuing FC membership among new members. We conducted a cohort study and enrolled participants from 17 FCs in Japan. We asked 5,421 individuals who became members from March 29, 2015 to April 5, 2016 to participate in the study; 2,934 completed the baseline survey, which was conducted when the participants became FC members. We followed up the participants until September 30, 2016. We excluded 883 participants with missing values and 69 participants under aged 18 years; thus, our analysis covered 1,982 individuals. We conducted the random survival forest to develop the prediction model. The mean follow-up period was 296.3 (standard deviation, 127.3) days; 488 participants (24.6%) cancelled their membership during the follow-up. The prediction model comprised 8 predictors: age; month of joining FC; years of education; being under medical follow-up; reasons for joining FC (health improvement, relaxation); and perceived benefits from exercise (maintaining good body weight, recognition of one’s ability by other). The discrimination and calibration were acceptable (C statistic: 0.692, continuous ranked probability score: 0.134). Our findings suggest that the prediction model could assess the valid probability for early FC cancellation among new members; however, a validation study will be needed.</p>

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