ACCURACY IMPROVEMENT OF TYPHOON BUILDING DAMAGE PROBABILITY MODELS USING WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION BY BUILDING SHAPE POLYGON

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  • 建物ポリゴン情報の導入によるワイブル分布を用いた台風の建物被害確率モデルの精度改善

Abstract

Building shape polygons were adopted to improve the accuracy of the building damage probability model applying the weakest link model. The building area ratio(ε), which is the ratio of building area to evaluation mesh area, was used as an indicator of building density. Additionally the damage or non-damage was determined for each mesh using the damaged building shape polygons. As results of investigation for building damage by Typhoon Jebi in 2018, it was found that the damage probability estimated from the damage probability model using the ε and the maximum wind speed squared as explanatory variables show good match with the actual values. Moreover, comparison of the estimated values by the constructed model with the actual damage mesh distribution showed that they generally corresponded to each other. In addition, the results of damage probability estimation of building damage by Typhoon Faxai in 2019 with the probability model constructed based on the building damages by Typhoon Jebi suggested that the proposed model was applicable to the other typhoons as well.

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