Development of Methods for Project Schedule Delay Risk Analysis

Takatsuka Kayoko, Sato Tomoichi, Aburada Kentaro, Okazaki Naonobu

doi:10.1252/kakoronbunshu.49.159

<p>Since introducing the project management technique “earned value management” in the 1970s, planning and schedule management that balances the three factors of process, resources, and cost are now possible. However, delay risk has increased over the years because of the large-scale scope and changes in the surrounding environment. Therefore, besides the above three factors, preparation and management regarding delay risk are critical. However, many projects rely on the experience and intuition of directors to monitor risk. This study develops a project schedule management mechanism and system that analyzes delay risk besides processes, resources, and costs. A schedule network generation unit with multiple activities and a delay risk evaluation unit are included in the schedule management system to achieve this purpose. As a mechanism for managing delay risk, we propose a method that evaluates the margin (delay risk tolerance) of the total float of the schedule network that has a negative correlation with delay risk and a simple and accurate calculation method.</p>

Development of Methods for Project Schedule Delay Risk Analysis

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