Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data
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- Shinohara Mizuki
- Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University Tokio Marine dR Co., Ltd.
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- Inatsu Masaru
- Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University Center for Natural Hazards Research, Hokkaido University
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Description
<p>A precipitation dataset is created to estimate a reproduction period of several thousand years for stochastic flood risk assessment in the non-life insurance sector. A stochastic precipitation model for natural hazard risk assessment developed in a previous study was applied to a large ensemble data. The model was used to obtain the precipitation ensembles for the recent and future climate by +2 K and +4 K increases in mean temperature, respectively. We successfully created 10,000 years of precipitation data, which makes it possible to obtain precipitation data over a 1,000-year return period.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Disaster Research
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Journal of Disaster Research 18 (8), 868-876, 2023-12-01
Fuji Technology Press Ltd.