Estimation of the Black Carbon Hastening Effect on Cryospheric Melting

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Other Title
  • 極地におけるブラックカーボンによる融解速度促進効果のシミュレーション : 漂着面積に着目して

Abstract

Like many other greenhouse gases, Black Carbon (BC) has been causing global warming by preventing sunlight reflection of ice. In addition, it uniquely causes continuous melting by enhancing heat transportation from sea to air. Today, additional research is required to visualize its straight effect on global warming. Through an experiment, this paper compares the volume change of natural and black carbon-covered ice under lowtemperature conditions to create a formula explaining the melting speed enhanced by BC. BC used in this experiment were synthesized from Benzene, mimicking the BC in the cryospheric regions generated from fossil fuels. Ice melting was observed using a timelapse video, analyzed by Image J, to calculate the mass transformation of ice periodically over time. Then, multiple regression analysis was run on these data using Python. As a result, it was found that BC hastens melting speed with statistical significance and can be expressed by this equation: (melting speed of ice ml/s) = 0.4690×BC% + 2.358×H – 8.813×T -47.00. (BC%: BC coverage H: humidity T: temperature in Celsius). It was found that BC coverage has a more decisive impact on melting than temperature. Through comparison with actual ice reduction speed in the Antarctic, this equation was proved to be reliable in specific conditions.

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