COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MARKOV CHAIN MODEL ESTIMATION METHODS BASED ON VISUAL INSPECTION DATA

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  • 目視点検データに基づくマルコフ連鎖モデル推定手法の比較分析

Abstract

<p> Numerous methodologies have been proposed to estimate Markov transition probabilities using visual inspection data and to describe the deterioration process using Markov chain models. However, there is a dearth of comparative examples that evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of these estimation methods using actual data. Consequently, the criteria for selecting a degradation prediction method are unclear when implementing asset management in practice. Additionally, certain estimation methods pose mathematical and technical barriers that prevent practitioners from applying them on their own. This study aims to address these gaps by summerizing the features and constrains of various estimation methods based on previous research. Markov transition probabilities are then estimated using actual inspection data under assumed conditions and analyze the circumstances under which these methods are effective, as well as when thier application may be inappropriate.</p>

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