DISCRETE-TIME MULTISTAGE WEIBULL HAZARD MODEL

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  • 離散時間多段階ワイブル劣化ハザードモデル

Abstract

<p> In the multistage Weibull deterioration hazard model for statistical deterioration forecasting of infrastructure assets, the transition probability of the condition state has a multiple integral form with no analytical solution, to represent the time-dependent transition of the condition state on a continuous time axis. Therefore, in estimating the model and utilizing the estimation results, the computational load of numerical integration has been problematic. To address it, this study uses the discrete Weibull distribution to propose a discrete-time multistage Weibull deterioration hazard model with an analytical solution for the transition probability of the condition state. The proposed model can be interpreted as a discrete-time approximation of the multistage Weibull deterioration hazard model. In an empirical analysis using inspection data of real expressway expansion joints, the usefulness of the proposed model is investigated with respect to model estimation accuracy and computational time.</p>

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