Probabilistic Inundation Risk Assessment Using Tsunami Hazard Information on the Nankai Trough Earthquakes and its Utilization

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  • 南海トラフ地震の津波ハザード情報を用いた確率論的浸水リスク評価とその利活用

Abstract

<p>A probabilistic tsunami risk assessment is conducted using the data from “Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Earthquakes Occurring along the Nankai Trough” published by NIED (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience). To identify areas where tsunami countermeasures should be prioritized, we assess the probability that present coastal facilities (levees) can protect against inundation damage (non-exceedance probability) in the event of the next Nankai Trough earthquake. Based on this evaluation of the present levees, Uwajima City, Ehime Prefecture, is selected as the target area, and probabilistic inundation hazard maps are then produced for the existing levees and raised levees conditions (3.5 m for all areas where the levees are less than 3.5 m in height). Furthermore, the amount of damage reduced by raising levees is calculated based on the method of Fujima and Hiwatari (2013), and a cost-benefit analysis is carried out. As a result, the cost-benefit ratio is estimated to be 1.22, confirming the effectiveness of the levee raising project. It is expected that the inundation risk assessment method proposed in this study will be utilized by local governments to promote tsunami countermeasures for the next Nankai Trough earthquake.</p>

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