FUTURE CHANGES IN COLLAPSE ON RAIL DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ―ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE RAILWAY LINES―

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  • 気候変動による鉄道沿線の土砂崩壊の将来変化 ―複数の路線を対象とした解析―

Abstract

<p> In the future, it is said that the risk of sediment-related disasters will increase due to increased precipitation accompanying climate change due to global warming, and railways will also be affected. Therefore, in this study, we target three major railway lines with a high frequency of collapse in the Tohoku and Kanto regions, and use the output data of numerical experiments based on the RCP8.5 scenario by the climate model (NHRCM02) to evaluate the disaster. Regarding the future change in the number of occurrences, we evaluated the difference by line section. As a result, it was found that the rate of increase in the number of collapse occurrences at the end of the 21st century will be 3.4 times higher than the present on railway lines in the Kanto region, and 2.5 times on average on railway lines in the Tohoku region.</p>

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