Association between atmospheric temperatures and bathing accidents in Shonai region of Yamagata Prefecture

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  • Matsuda Tomoko
    Department of Public Health, Yamagata University Graduate School of Medical Science.
  • Tanaka Atsushi
    Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Yamagata University
  • Matsuda Toru
    Public interest foundation corporation Tokiwa organization Sadakichi Takebayashi commemoration clinic
  • Ahiko Tadayuki
    Department of health and social welfare, Yamagata Prefecture
  • Kawasaki Ryo
    Department of Public Health, Yamagata University Graduate School of Medical Science.

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Other Title
  • 山形県庄内地域における入浴事故の実態と気温との関連性について
  • ヤマガタケン ショウナイ チイキ ニ オケル ニュウヨク ジコ ノ ジッタイ ト キオン ト ノ カンレンセイ ニ ツイテ

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Abstract

<p>[Background]</p><p>In Japan, mortalities from bathing accidents occur in 14,000 to 19,000 people annually nationwide. Previous studies have suggested the accidents occurred more frequently in "winter season," "at home," and in "elderly people." The aim of this study was to determine the association between atmospheric temperatures and bathing accidents and to construct risk models to identify high-risk days for bathing accidents in the Shonai region of Yamagata Prefecture.</p><p>[Methods]</p><p>Ambulance dispatch data were collected from the emergency departments of Tsuruoka City and Mikawa Town from 2009 through 2013. Atmospheric temperatures in the area were collected from the Japan Meteorological Agency website. Logistic regression models were used to determine odds ratios for days with accidents per -1℃ change. Threshold values of the temperatures used to classify the days with accidents were determined by receiver operating curve analysis.</p><p>[Results]</p><p>We identified 451 ambulance dispatch cases due to bathing accidents. The odds ratio for occurrence of bathing accident on given a day with was 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.06) per -1℃ in average temperature. The threshold values for the average, highest, and lowest temperatures in the winter season were 7.4℃, 7.1℃, and 1.2℃, respectively. When a day met these three threshold temperatures, the odds ratio for bathing accident to occur on that day was 2.13 (95%CI 1.44–3.15). When a day met threshold value for the average and lowest temperatures, the odds ratio for bathing accident to occur on that day was 2.03 (95%CI 1.39-2.97).</p><p>[Conclusion]</p><p>We constructed a model with a simple scoring system based on particular thresholds for the average, highest, and lowest atmospheric temperatures, and confirmed that lower temperatures, in general, are associated with bathing accidents in this region. Based on this model, a day with greater than two-fold increased risk of bathing accidents was identified for this region.</p>

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