犯罪・非行者率に及ぼす年齢・時代・コウホート効果の分析

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  • An Analysis of Age,Period,and Cohort Effects on Crime and Delinquency Rates in Japan
  • ハンザイ ヒコウシャリツ ニ オヨボス ネンレイ ジダイ コウホート コウカ

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<p>The purpose of this research is to separate and clarify age, period, and cohort effects on crime and delinquency rates in Japan.</p><p>The data used are from arrest rates per population of 100,000 by ages, according to their sexes and their offenses (larceny and bodily injure) during the years 1966-1987 in Japan. The analysis method used is the Bayesian cohort model by Nakamura , which overcomes the identification problem in cohort analysis by selecting the optimal model based on Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) , under the assumption that the successive parameters should change gradually. This model can separate the three effects. Main findings are the following ,</p><p>1) In total, males and females age effects are the largest, cohort effects the next and period effects the smallest. Age effects are the largest, and both of cohort and period effects are small in both of larceny and bodily injure. 2) Age effects are the highest at the age of 15 in total and for males, and at the age of 16 for females. 3) Peak age of bodily injures (19 years old) is 4 years older than that of larcenies (15 years old) in total, but not so for females (both 16 years old). 4) Cohort effects are the highest among those born in 1970 in total and for males, and among those born in 1971 for females. Those are second baby boom generations. Cohort effects are the lowest among those born in 1954 in total, among those born in 1955 for males, and among those born in 1953 for females. Those are post first baby boom generations. Period effects are almost fixed in total, for males, and for females. 5) Cohort effects of bodily injure among females are relatively large, It can be noted that those born in 1970-197 4 are more violent and those born in 1952 -1955 are less violent. 6) The result of the analysis by the〔AP〕PC model which includes the interaction of age and period effects shows that the age effects change according to period. In 1967 the age effects at the age of 14-16 were not so high and those at the age of 17-19 were not so low. But in 1987 the age effects at the age of 14-16 were higher and those at the age of 17-19 were lower.</p>

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