Mitigation potential of reactive nitrogen loss to the environment by improving Japanese consumers’ dietary life and future predictions along with the United Nations SDGs scenario

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  • 日本の消費者の食生活改善による反応性窒素排出削減ポテンシャルと国連SDGsシナリオに沿った将来予測
  • ニホン ノ ショウヒシャ ノ ショク セイカツ カイゼン ニ ヨル ハンノウセイ チッソ ハイシュツ サクゲン ポテンシャル ト コクレン SDGs シナリオ ニ ソッタ ショウライ ヨソク

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<p>Measures and approaches to mitigate reactive nitrogen (Nr) loss to the environment during food production to consumption process should be proceeded not only with increasing the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and promoting Nr recycling mainly intended for producers but also with improving the dietary life of consumers. This study was conducted to illustrate the historical changes in Japanese consumers’ overconsumption and food loss during 1960–2015 and to estimate the mitigation potential of Nr loss and its contribution to the increase in the food self-sufficiency rate (SSR). National statistics were used to calculate the overconsumption-Nr, food loss-Nr, food nitrogen footprint (Nr loss), and their mitigation potentials; and to predict the Nr loss and food SSR along with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 12 to halve the rates of overconsumption and food loss with a half-life of 15 years, considering the decreasing population, decreasing birthrate and aging population, and decreasing agricultural land area until 2095. Food loss-Nr began to increase remarkably in mid-1970s, after overconsumption-Nr reached its maximum and remained generally constant. Mitigation potential of Nr loss by quantitatively improving the dietary life of Japanese consumers to reduce the overconsumption-Nr and food loss-Nr was evaluated as 33％ reduction, and it is predicted that this plan can increase the food SSR to 60％ by 2050 and more than several decades are required to reach this target. Moreover, a qualitative improvement plan of returning to the Japanese diet of around 1970 that was rich in fish and legume protein from the current diet largely based on livestock products was evaluated as having the potential for a 19％ reduction in Nr loss. Thus, the simultaneous application of both plans could lead to a reduction in Nr loss by 46％. In addition, about 40％ of Nr loss was estimated to occur in food-exporting countries and the NUE of the Japanese food production–supply system has dropped in line with the increase in the dependency on imported food. As consumers are the main driver of the nitrogen cycle, sharing these findings with consumers is the most important way to reduce Nr loss.</p>

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