都市近郊野菜作経営におけるリスク選好と新技術導入

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  • Risk Preference and Adoption of New Technology under Uncertainty: An Application of Stochastic Programming to a Vegetable Farming System in Chiba, Japan
  • 都市近郊野菜作経営におけるリスク選好と新技術導入--確率的計画法による経済的評価
  • トシ キンコウ ヤサイサク ケイエイ ニ オケル リスク センコウ ト シンギ
  • 確率的計画法による経済的評価

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<p>　A maximum probability model is applied to evaluate the effects of adoption of new technology and introduction of hired labor in a vegetable farming system in Chiba, Japan. The model incorporates farmer's aspiration level (risk preference parameter), fluctuation of revenue coefficients, and limitation of resources. The following are main results : 1) Adoption of new cultivation technology by prefabricated greenhouse, which has vinyl walls and a vinyl roof instead of glass, increases both expected value and stability of the total revenue with increase of family labor inputs. 2) Introduction of hired labor to the farming system with new technology contributes mainly an increase of expected revenue in risk-neutral (higher aspiration level) case and mainly an increase of stability of revenue in risk-averse (lower aspiration level) case. 3) Risk preference (value of aspiration level) affects the optimal size of the greenhouse when hired labor inputs are available.</p>

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