Prior and Anchoring Biases on Magnitude Estimation from a Proper Noun

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  • 大きさ推定における事前バイアスとアンカリング効果―情報量の少ない固有名詞を用いた例―

Abstract

Our numeric decisions are affected by a value presented in advance. Such cognitive tendency and the presented value are called anchoring bias and anchor, respectively. In this paper, we tried evaluating the anchoring bias quantitatively by magnitude estimation from name of Opabinia, an early Cambrian aquatic life. In the experiments, the subjects performed the magnitude estimation without anchor or after presentation of anchor. We focused on the probability distributions of magnitude estimation and developed a mathematical model which can reproduce the experimental results. In our model, the prior for the target magnitude and presented anchors obey Log-Normal or Log-Student's t distribution.

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