Development of fish population dynamics model including characteristic of environmental response in coastal sea area: application to <i>Ammodytes personatus sp</i> in Osaka Bay as an example

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  • 環境応答特性を考慮した個体群動態モデルの構築手法について―大阪湾のイカナゴを例として―
  • カンキョウ オウトウ トクセイ オ コウリョ シタ コタイグン ドウタイ モデル ノ コウチク シュホウ ニ ツイテ : オオサカワン ノ イカナゴ オ レイ ト シテ

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Abstract

<p>The coastal sea area affected by both outer sea and land area has had a variable environmental state. Additionally, influences of human economic activities make it more complicated. Analyzing using a numerical model is an effective way to figure out the relationship between the fluctuation of the environmental state and fish population dynamics quantitatively. On the other hand, there has not been enough ecological knowledge to develop a numerical model. The purpose of this study is to develop a numerical model using statistics. This model is applied to Ammodytes personatus sp in Osaka Bay as an example. Apparently, non-linear responses of fish population to environmental factors are revealed by optimal transformation method and are formulated as a population dynamics model, including environmental effects based on the responses. Additionally, MCMC method is used to estimate optimal parameters for many unknown parameters in the developed model. These results allow the quantitative evaluation of the imact of fisheries and the environmental state on fish population dynamics of Ammodytes personatus sp in Osaka Bay.</p>

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