北朝鮮の核軍拡に対応する核抑止論の刷新と日韓への影響

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  • 崔 正勲
    立命館大学立命館アジア・日本研究機構

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タイトル別名
  • Renewal of Nuclear Deterrence in Response to North Korea’s Nuclear Arms Expansion and Impact on Japan and South Korea
  • キタチョウセン ノ カク グンカク ニ タイオウ スル カク ヨクシロン ノ サッシン ト ニッカン エ ノ エイキョウ

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<p>There are two purposes of my research; firstly, to verify the nuclear weapons made under the Kim Jong Un regime and evaluate the regime’s survivability in terms of nuclear deterrence theory; secondly to assess the DPRK’s advanced nuclear weapons’ influence on the credibility of the US extended deterrence for Japan and the RoK from the perspective of nuclear deterrence theory. This verification process consists of three stages. First, since a new security environment has emerged due to North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons capable of delivering H-bombs to US metropolitan cities, such as Washington D.C. and NYC, that can break through Missile Defense (MD), this research will review the development of its advanced nuclear weapons by both qualitative and quantitative methods by examining how the Kim Jong Un regime made the decision to accelerate its nuclear development and then put it into practice. Next, it will theoretically analyze its influences on the US extended deterrent, especially focusing on MD, for Japan and South Korea, while contemplating the clearly changing security environment that has been observed nowadays. Finally, it will aim to reform nuclear deterrence theory that does not seem to fully explain the extremely asymmetric deterrence relationship between the US and North Korea, and to consider the possible strategic alternatives for Japan and South Korea when it comes to the US extended deterrent whosecredibility has been decreased in terms of nuclear deterrence theory.</p>

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