得失点とサーブ権によるバレーボールの勝利確率の推定

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  • Win Probability for Volleyball estimated by service and points
  • トクシツテン ト サーブケン ニ ヨル バレーボール ノ ショウリ カクリツ ノ スイテイ

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In this study, we estimated the probability of win in volleyball game by service and points. Results indicated the effect of predictor variables on the probability of win. For example, the service team’s probability of win is lower than non-service（ reception） team even when points are tie. The estimated probability of win indicates not only the trend of game, but can applicable to evaluate the player’s contribution for win and manager's benchwork like member change and timeout. We analyzed Japanese elite volleyball league, V.Leage. It is necessary to expand the research to other categories in the future.

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