STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY AND RISK COMMUNICATION

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Other Title
  • 地震発生確率とリスクコミュニケーションに関する研究
  • ジシン ハッセイ カクリツ ト リスク コミュニケーション ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

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Abstract

<p>When dealing with the seismic ground motion stochastically that hits particular place, it is generally expressed that the probability of being hit by a ground motion with a seismic intensity of over 6 - with the next 30 years is 〇〇 %. However, with this index, it has been pointed out a problem in evaluating the probability of occurrence of an earthquake. The problem happens when probability of occurrence of different type earthquake, such as an active fault type and a plate boundary type, return periods of which are significantly different, is calculated for the same time length, such as the next 30 years. Therefore, in this study, the cumulative probability that indicates probability of an earthquake, which could have occurred up to now, is calculated. Then, subtracting this probability from 1, it is calculated as the probability remaining until the next event occurs (residual probability）. With this methodology, the probability of earthquake occurrence is expressed considering the influence of the return period and based on this probability, probability of expected ground motion distribution has been obtained.</p>

Journal

  • SEISAN KENKYU

    SEISAN KENKYU 73 (5), 299-302, 2021-11-01

    Institute of Industrial Science The University of Tokyo

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