A Prediction Method of Failure Rate of Telecommunication Network Equipment Using State Space Model

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Other Title
  • 状態空間モデルを用いた通信ネットワークの装置故障率予測法

Abstract

The average failure rate per month is one of the main indicator to measure the reliability of telecommunication network equipment. There is a demand to predict the future using a failure rate that has been continuously measured for a long time. By using the upper confidence interval of the failure rate and the scheduled deployment number, the number of spare parts to be secured is able to be calculated. In this paper, the authors propose a prediction method of the failure rate using state space model. Moreover, the utility of the authors proposal is also evaluated through the actual analysis.

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