Long-Term Demographic Forecasting for the Chugoku Region Until 2050 : An Estimation Considering the Characteristics of Inter-Regional Migration <Article>

DOI IR Web Site Open Access

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 中国地域における2050年までの長期人口予測 : 地域間人口移動の特徴を考慮した推計 <論文>
  • 中国地域における2050年までの長期人口予測 : 地域間人口移動の特徴を考慮した推計
  • チュウゴク チイキ ニ オケル 2050ネン マデ ノ チョウキ ジンコウ ヨソク : チイキ カン ジンコウ イドウ ノ トクチョウ オ コウリョ シタ スイケイ

Search this article

Abstract

This paper develops a population forecasting model for the Chugoku region in Japan, highlighting the consistent structure of interregional migration, and the effects of economic disparity between regions. By considering the changes in out-migration rate by age, the results show that population aging causes a reduction in interregional migration, which leads to natural demographic change dominating. Moreover, it is predicted that elderly people will rapidly increase by 24% in Hiroshima prefecture due to the aging of post-war baby boomers that had inflow during the rapid growth period, and so again natural demographic change will become increasingly significant. The forecasts of other institutions, which assume that the net migration rate during 2005-2010 will remain constant in the future, are more pessimistic than the results found in this paper. Lastly, the change in the fertility rate may affect the prefectural population in the Chugoku region in 2050 by around 10%.

Journal

  • 地域経済研究

    地域経済研究 25 77-89, 2014-03

    広島大学大学院社会科学研究科附属地域経済システム研究センター

Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

Report a problem

Back to top