On Economic Forecasts by Forecasting Institutions

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Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 予測機関の予測形成様式
  • ヨソク キカン ノ ヨソク ケイセイ ヨウシキ

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Abstract

We examine the process of formation economic forecasts by 17 economic forecasting institutions including the Japanese government. We first update the analysis of Asako, Sano, and Nagao (1989) and find that most of their implications are replicated for the updated sample period. We then test the null hypothesis that each forecasting institution makes forecasts consistent with the "true model" which governs the dynamic processes of respective economic indicators. The test result is not-rejected (or accepted) insofar as the true model is selected within the confines of a simple time series model but it is rejected once the policy effects of monetary and fiscal measures are taken into account.

Journal

  • 経済研究

    経済研究 56 (3), 218-233, 2005-07-25

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Details

  • CRID
    1390853649798319616
  • NII Article ID
    120004791500
  • NII Book ID
    AN00070761
  • DOI
    10.15057/21520
  • HANDLE
    10086/19937
  • NDL BIB ID
    7425637
  • ISSN
    00229733
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
    • IRDB
    • NDL
    • CiNii Articles
    • KAKEN
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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