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On Economic Forecasts by Forecasting Institutions

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  • 予測機関の予測形成様式
  • ヨソク キカン ノ ヨソク ケイセイ ヨウシキ

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We examine the process of formation economic forecasts by 17 economic forecasting institutions including the Japanese government. We first update the analysis of Asako, Sano, and Nagao (1989) and find that most of their implications are replicated for the updated sample period. We then test the null hypothesis that each forecasting institution makes forecasts consistent with the "true model" which governs the dynamic processes of respective economic indicators. The test result is not-rejected (or accepted) insofar as the true model is selected within the confines of a simple time series model but it is rejected once the policy effects of monetary and fiscal measures are taken into account.


  • 経済研究

    経済研究 56 (3), 218-233, 2005-07-25


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