Analysis of Roof Damage Distribution Caused by Typhoons and Damage Probability Estimation based on the Weakest Link Model

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  • 台風による屋根被害分布の分析と最弱リンクモデルに基づく被害確率推定

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The relation between the distribution of roof damaged by Typhoon Jebi, 2018 and the maximum wind speed during passing this typhoon (Vmax) were investigated by Geographic Information System. The variation of the damage ratio given as the ratio of the number of blue tarps to the number of houses in a survey mesh was very wide and did not show the clarify relationship with Vmax. Therefore, the number of the damage mesh (survey mesh including at least one damage) was counted and the relation between the cumulative number of damage mesh for the squared Vmax was investigated based on the weakest link probability model. As the result of this investigation, it was clarified that distribution of cumulative number of damage mesh was fit very well to Weibull distribution which is the solution of the weakest link probability model, and Weibull parameters were controlled by the housing density.

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