Effects of Modeling Uncertainties Regarding Tsunami Generation/Propagation in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

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  • SUGINO Hideharu
    Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA/R)
  • ABE Yuta
    Itochu Techno-Solutions Corporation

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Other Title
  • 確率論的津波ハザード解析における津波発生・伝播モデルの不確かさの影響

Abstract

<p>For tsunamis caused by interplate earthquakes, we set probabilistic models by quantitatively evaluating the uncertainties associated with the models of the scaling law related to the seismic moment, the Gutenberg-Richter law related to the frequency of earthquake occurrence, and then we proposed a PTHA method that incorporated these probabilistic models. Furthermore, we applied the proposed method to off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture as the model site, considering other uncertainties associated with the arrangement pattern of the heterogeneous slip distribution and the tsunami propagation model, and analyzed the effects of the uncertainties on the PTHA results. We confirmed that the uncertainty associated with the scaling law had the most significant effect among the above uncertainties, and we could quantitatively show the impact using the ratio of the relative maximum water level of the 95% confidence curve and 50% one, and the Jensen-Shannon divergence.</p>

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