Snow avalanche simulation with TITAN2D. Part 2: development of a hazard map using PCQ

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  • 連続体モデルTITAN2Dを用いた雪崩の運動のシミュレーションⅡ─雪崩への適用と多項式カオス求積法を用いたハザードマップの作成─
  • 連続体モデルTITAN2Dを用いた雪崩の運動のシミュレーション(2)雪崩への適用と多項式カオス求積法を用いたハザードマップの作成
  • レンゾクタイ モデル TITAN2D オ モチイタ ナダレ ノ ウンドウ ノ シミュレーション(2)ナダレ エ ノ テキヨウ ト タコウシキ カオスキュウセキホウ オ モチイタ ハザードマップ ノ サクセイ

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Abstract

The TITAN2D mass flow model was applied to a snow avalanche event that occurred in Hiziori, Yamagata, Japan, in January 2012. We assigned bed friction angles according to whether the avalanche was travelling over snow or bare ground, and estimated an internal friction angle from observations of debris deposit. The model simulation successfully reproduced both the front speed and flow distance with a high degree of accuracy. Subsequently, we attempted to draw a snow avalanche hazard map for the study area, taking into account uncertainties associated with the model input parameters; i.e., volume, bed-friction angle, and release position. Finally, we used the Polynomial Chaos Quadrature method (PCQ) to evaluate the probability of avalanche arrival.

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