Recent Spread of Syphilis is Just the Beginning of Outbreak

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  • 梅毒アウトブレイクは始まったばかりである
  • バイドク アウトブレイク ワ ハジマッタ バカリ デ アル

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Abstract

<p>Objective: To speculate the expansion and outbreak in the near future by analyzing the trend of recent spread of syphilis.</p><p>Methods: Spread of syphilis was compared with the trend of other sexually transmitted infections. Effective reproduction numbers (ERN) were calculated using the notification numbers of syphilis in Gunma prefecture every month from 2017 to 2022 to speculate the spread of syphilis in the next three years.</p><p>Results: Cases of syphilis are increasing noticeably. ERN was high in the summer and low in the winter every year. If ERN of 2022 continues after that, the cases of syphilis might increase by 1.4 times in 2023, by 1.6 times in 2024 and by 1.9 in 2025. If ERN of 2021 continues, it might increase by 2.4 times in 2023, by 6.7 times in 2024 and by 16.4 in 2025 consequently in Gunma prefecture.</p><p>Discussion: In Japan, outbreak of syphilis is observed every 20 years. The next peak of an outbreak is supposed to come in 2027 or 2028. The results of this study support this speculation, and policies should be implemented to suppress the expansion and outbreak of syphilis.</p>

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