AN EVALUATION METHOD OF THE LONG-TERM FUTURE CLIMATE MITIGATION SCENARIOS BASED ON THE COMPARISON WITH THE HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE

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  • 歴史的に観察された変化との対比に基づく長期気候緩和シナリオの評価方法

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<p> The long-term climate mitigation scenarios are not estimated in the context of their validity and feasibility, despite their essential role in climate policymaking. In this study, we focused on the distribution of rate and amount of annual change in indicators from the scenarios, presented an evaluation method comparing the future and historical change, and applied the method to the three indicators consisting of energy intensity, carbon intensity, and electrification rate. The change rate distribution in energy intensity is within the range of historical experience, but 40 to 50% of the change rate distribution is out of the range of historical experience in carbon intensity and electrification rate required in some scenarios with severe climate targets.</p>

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