UNCERTAINTIES IN PORT SEDIMENTATION PREDICTIONS AND EFFECT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

DOI Web Site 6 References
  • YAMAUCHI Isao
    (一社）寒地港湾空港技術研究センター 調査研究部
  • ABESHIMA Naoya
    （株）クマシロシステム設計 解析設計部
  • TABATA Shinichi
    日本データーサービス（株） 水工第II部
  • HAYAKAWA Tetsuya
    国土交通省 北海道開発局 港湾空港部港湾計画課
  • OTSUKA Junichi
    （国研）土木研究所寒地土木研究所 寒地水圏研究グループ
  • HIRANO Seiji
    （国研）土木研究所寒地土木研究所 寒地水圏研究グループ
  • NAKAGAWA Yasuyuki
    （国研）海上・港湾・航空技術研究所 港湾空港技術研究所

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Other Title
  • 港内の埋没予測における不確実性と気候変動による影響

Abstract

<p> In sediment transport analysis for port burial, it is essential to understand the model error and the external force level of the waves to evaluate the calculation results. In this study, the results of sedimentation analyses of ports in Hokkaido show the importance of indicating the area where the model reproducibility was confirmed and also statistically show that the error of the calculated sedimentation rate from the measured value is about 20% with a standard deviation of σ and about 40% with a standard deviation of 2σ. We also found that in ports, where relatively high correlations between sedimentation rate and wave energy can be obtained, these relationships enable the estimation of sedimentation rates from wave observations without sedimentation analysis. Furthermore, using the first-order correlation between sedimentation rate and wave energy from the Wave Weather Prediction Dataset 2022, which is the result of wave estimation associated with future climate change, we found that the amount of sedimentation at navigation and anchorage areas in ports on the Pacific side of Hokkaido would decrease with future changes in external forces of waves.</p>

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