LONG-TERM ASSESSMENT OF RIVER FLOW REGIME APPLYING STATISTICAL CORRECTION METHOD TO ERA5

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  • 統計的補正手法を適用したERA5を用いた長期的な河川流況評価

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<p> In the case of instituting river planning, it is important to determine the exceedance probabilities based on long-term observational data. However, there are many data-scarce basins in the world, such as in developing countries. Although reanalysis data has been used instead of observation data in these areas, it has biases between the observational data since the spatial resolution of reanalysis data is low. In this study, we developed a statistical correction method for reanalysis data (ERA5) with four different calibration periods (rewind to 5, 10, 15 and 20 years from the latest year of observation data) and created long-term pseudo hydro-meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature. In addition, we examined the type of probability distribution and the number of years for the calibration period that should be applied to create highly accurate corrected data. As a result, it is found that river flow indices based on ERA5 which was applied to the statistical correction method are the almost same relative to the observational data. Furthermore, the corrected data which applied the statistical correction method with the gamma distribution developed based on over 15 years of observational data in the calibration period revealed the high accuracy river flow indices and annual exceedance probability flow based on observational data.</p>

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