Developing and Validating a New Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Using Medical Examination Items in a Japanese Population ― The Suita Study ―

  • Arafa Ahmed
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Beni-Suef University
  • Kato Yuka
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Division of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine
  • Sakata Satoko
    Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University Department of Medicine and Clinical Science, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University
  • Ninomiya Toshiharu
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University
  • Khairan Paramita
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Muhammadiyah Jakarta
  • Kawachi Haruna
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Medical Statistics, Research & Development Center, Osaka Medical and Pharmaceutical University
  • Nakao Yoko M.
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center
  • Matsumoto Chisa
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Cardiology, Center for Health Surveillance and Preventive Medicine, Tokyo Medical University Hospital
  • Mizuno Atsushi
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Department of Cardiology, St. Luke’s International Hospital
  • Kokubo Yoshihiro
    Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center

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Description

<p>Background: The aim of this was to develop an atrial fibrillation (AF) risk score using items usually included in Japanese governmental health check-ups.</p><p>Methods and Results: We analyzed data from 6,476 Japanese participants registered in the Suita Study. At baseline, the participants were aged ≥30 years and were free from AF. Cox regression analysis was used to identify AF risk factors, and a 0–100 score was developed to predict AF events within 10 years. Within a median follow-up of 14.6 years, 278 participants developed AF. The risk score incorporated age [<50 years (16 points for men, 0 for women), 50–59 years (26 points for men, 14 for women), 60–69 years (41 points for men, 37 for women), ≥70 years (54 points for men, 51 for women)], current smoking with a smoking index >500 (7 points), heavy alcohol consumption (8 points), body mass index ≥25 kg/m2(6 points), hypertension (7 points), urinary proteins (4 points), glutamic-pyruvic transaminase >50 IU/dL (4 points), and cardiovascular disease history (10 points). The 10-year AF event probabilities were 7.1%, 8.4%, 10.8%, and 15.9% for scores of 47–54, 55–58, 59–69, and ≥70, respectively.</p><p>Conclusions: The new risk score to predict AF uses items similar to those used in Japanese governmental health check-ups.</p>

Journal

  • Circulation Journal

    Circulation Journal 89 (6), 819-825, 2025-05-23

    The Japanese Circulation Society

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