Predicting Output from the Culture of MOZUKU Seaweed in Okinawa in Order to Set Strategic Production Goals

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  • 沖縄モズク養殖に係る作況予察手法の検討
  • 沖縄モズク養殖に係る作況予察手法の検討--戦略的生産目標の構築に向けて
  • オキナワ モズク ヨウショク ニ カカワル サッキョウ ヨサツ シュホウ ノ ケントウ センリャクテキ セイサン モクヒョウ ノ コウチク ニ ムケテ
  • 戦略的生産目標の構築に向けて

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Abstract

<p>As a result of cooperative research by the Fisheries Development Office and Onna Village Fishery Research Group, MOZUKU seaweed was first cultured in Okinawa in 1977. The output gradually increased thereafter, and in 1999 it exceeded 20000 tons for the first time. At present, over 99% of Japan’s output from MOZUKU culture comes from the Okinawa Sea area.</p><p>However, the culture is not strictly controlled, and there is a marked year-to-year variation in production owing to strong changes in such factors as hydrographic and meteorological conditions. A retrospective investigation of hydrographic and meteorological conditions could therefore help us to predict, to some extent, future changes in production.</p><p>To determine whether this could be done, we performed a multiple regression analysis by taking output as a purpose variable and making such factors as precipitation and hours of sunshine explanatory variables. We investigated the 20 years from 1987 to 2006, assuming that the area of the fishery grounds under culture did not change greatly over this time.</p><p>We were able to obtain a biregressive Okinawa MOZUKU culture to some extent can. However, the MOZUKU culture area in the Okinawa Sea has recently expanded rapidly. Because our regression equation was based on the premise that the area under culture did not change, there is a risk that the method will not be applicable in future. For this reason, the methods used to predict the output from MOZUKU culture and set strategic production goals will need to be examined continually in future.</p>

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