A STUDY OF COMPUTATION TIME AND ACCURACY OF THE PREDICTION OF STORM SURGE AND WAVES USING GLOBAL WRF MODEL
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- SHIRAI Tomoki
- 中央大学 理工学部都市環境学科
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- FUJIWARA Kazuhiro
- 元 中央大学大学院 理工学研究科都市人間環境学専攻
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- WATANABE Masashi
- 中央大学 理工学部都市環境学科
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- ARIKAWA Taro
- 中央大学 理工学部都市環境学科
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- WRFを用いた高潮・波浪予測計算の計算時間及び予測精度についての検討
- WRF オ モチイタ タカシオ ・ ハロウ ヨソク ケイサン ノ ケイサン ジカン オヨビ ヨソク セイド ニ ツイテ ノ ケントウ
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Abstract
<p> We conducted the prediction in case of the 2019 typhoon Hagibis to examine the accuracy of the surge and waves prediction using global WRF. We obtained the most reliable sustained maximum wind speed and peak value of surge and significant wave height in case that simulation of the typhoon was started approximate 1000 km offshore from Japan coast. The predicted maximum storm surge was underestimated because the propagation speed of typhoon was underestimated and the wind direction was different from the observation. In addition, in the real-time prediction, we have to consider computation time and computation efficiency not only prediction accuracy. However, the appropriate model configuration from this point of view hasn’t been investigated, yet. To achieve the cost-effective storm surge and waves prediction with high accuracy, the relations among prediction accuracy, computation time, and computation load should be generalized. The results of this study presented the best prediction start timing to achieve the cost-effective prediction in case of the 2019 typhoon Hagibis. More prediction cases must be accumulated to generalize the model configulations.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 76 (2), I_247-I_252, 2020
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
