中国GDP統計をめぐる論争の再考《論文》

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タイトル別名
  • 中国GDP統計をめぐる論争の再考
  • チュウゴク GDP トウケイ オ メグル ロンソウ ノ サイコウ

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This paper surveys the arguments concerning China’s GDP statistics. Topics covered include the upward adjustments of 30％ or more for China’s official GDP by the World Bank in its publications 1994 to 1998, and the upward adjustment of about 10％ by Maddison in his “Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run” published by the Development Center of OECD in 1998. The paper also covers Rawski’s criticism of China’s GDP growth rate for example in “What is happening to China’s GDP statistics?”, a criticism which is based on inconsistencies between government statistics. The paper also looks at various commentaries on China GDP statistics made widely by scholars and the media in the United States, Europe, Japan and China since 2000. In addition, the rebuttal of some of the criticism and adjustments, and the three retroactive revisions of the GDP that have been made so far by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) are discussed. The survey shows the possibility that China’s GDP statistics have been underestimated conservatively and have very likely not been overestimated as the media suggest. This paper also considers the consistency between the Gross Regional Product (GRP) estimated by local governments and the GDP estimated by the central governments in Japan and China, and the problems of GDP estimates based on the concept of MPS.

1. はじめに2. 1994-98年における世銀による中国公式GDPの上方調整3. 1998年のMaddison, A. による中国GDPの調整4. 2000年以後の中国GDP統計をめぐる論争 1) 地域GRPと国GDPとの整合性について 2) MPS概念に基づく推計の問題5. 遡及改訂からみるこれまでの論争6. おわりに

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