Seasonal Models of Herpangina and Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease to Simulate Annual Fluctuations in Urban Warming in Tokyo
-
- Urashima Mitsuyoshi
- Division of Clinical Research and Development, Department of Pediatrics, Jikei University School of Medicine, Japan Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan
-
- Shindo Nahoko
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan
-
- Okabe Nobuhiko
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan
この論文をさがす
説明
<p>In order to investigate the effects of global warming, we attempted to establish seasonal models to predict fluctuations in rates of herpangina (HA) and hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) associated with weather conditions and calendar months in Tokyo, Japan. Surveillance data tracking HA/HFMD incidences in Tokyo was retrieved from the Infectious Agents Surveillance Report, published by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan. From the Meteorological Agency, we obtained data for 54 weather condition parameters. The annual fluctuations in reported HA cases comprising start, peak, and end weeks almost exactly matched the model, although peak levels for each fluctuation did not always match in HFMD. Furthermore, for the HA model, 88% of the variations among observed HA cases were explained by the linear relationship with the seasonal parameters investigated, which was higher than the 64% observed for the HFMD model. The HA and HFMD models were applied to data from the years 1999 to 2002, and demonstrated correlations of 86% and 64%, respectively. These models predicted that warmer climate conditions would lead to an increased number of HA and HFMD cases. These results suggest that our seasonal models may quantify the dependency of infectious diseases on seasonal parameters and simulate the impact of global warming.</p>
収録刊行物
-
- Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases
-
Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases 56 (2), 48-53, 2003-06-28
国立感染症研究所
- Tweet
詳細情報 詳細情報について
-
- CRID
- 1390303542645903488
-
- NII論文ID
- 50000263357
-
- NII書誌ID
- AA1132885X
-
- ISSN
- 18842836
- 13446304
-
- NDL書誌ID
- 6579435
-
- 本文言語コード
- en
-
- データソース種別
-
- JaLC
- NDLサーチ
- Crossref
- CiNii Articles
-
- 抄録ライセンスフラグ
- 使用不可