Condorcet's Studies on Majority Decision : The Jury Theorem and the Enlightenment

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  • コンドルセ『多数決論』の研究 : 陪審定理と啓蒙思想

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Abstract

In this paper，we will examine the jury theorem which Condorcet proposed in his study on majority decision at 1785. Then，we will clarify not only its useful implications for the studies of collective decisions，but also its limitations. Condorcet's model was too influenced with the views of "humanity" and "truth" in the age of the Enlightenment. Thus，we must encounter many difficulties, if we are going to apply his model to the analysis of today's decision processes，where many values are conflicting with one another. Therefore，recent social choice theories are developing on the basis of "Condorcet's rule" which was only an ad-hoc hypothesis for Condorcet's thought. His main idea，that is，the jury theorem itself is rarely referred. Nevertheless, the jury theorem to explore the probability of the "right" decision will suggest important keys for the progress of the studies on social choices and collective decisions.

Journal

  • 現代社会学

    現代社会学 (5), 3-24, 2004

    広島国際学院大学現代社会学部

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