A DISCOUNTED PRESENT VALUE OF SEISMIC RISK CURVE IN INFINITE TIME PERIOD

AIJ

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  • 永久期間の地震リスクカーブとその割引現在価値

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This paper proposed an evaluation method of discounted present value of a seismic risk curve in infinite time period. Probability density function of occurrence of earthquake events is derived based on Poisson process and Brownian passage time distribution. Formulation of a seismic risk curve of buildings in operating period is shown and the discounted present value is evaluated. In addition, formulation of the discounted present value is extended to the infinite time period, and the characteristics of the risk curve are investigated. As a numerical example, cost-effectiveness of anti-seismic disaster measures for buildings in Tokyo is evaluated using the discounted risk curve in infinite time period.

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