Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)

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Abstract The Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a large-scale model for scenario analyses of green-house gas (GHG) emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian Pacific region. The AIM comprises two main models — the AIM/emission model for predicting GHG emissions and the AIM/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming — which are linked by the global GHG cycle and the climate change models. This paper categorizes the scenarios that have been written so far in relation to global warming, and then, given fixed inputs, simulates the effects of global warming taking into account various uncertainties. Several recent outcomes from the AIM/impact model are then described. Assuming climate change scenarios deduced from AIM/emission and GCM experiments, primary impacts on water resources and natural vegetation are assessed.

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